- New road transport insights paper reveals that cars and trucks could reduce energy use by 70% by 2050, even while distances travelled increase by around 70%.
- Over 90% of the energy reductions can be achieved by electrification and engineering alone, reducing the need for personal lifestyle or behavioural changes.
- Lighter designs, sharper aerodynamics, denser batteries, and smart motors and tyres could allow EVs of 2050 to use half the electricity per kilometre of today.
- While autonomous vehicles (AVs) can optimise commercial operations, passenger AVs may offset these gains and increase congestion.
A new report by the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) released today, finds the road transport sector could cut 70% of energy demand by 2050 while supporting an estimated 70% growth across passenger and commercial vehicle travel. Today, the sector — including cars, buses, trucks, motorcycles, motorised rickshaws — accounts for over 12% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The report explores how the road transport sector can improve ‘energy productivity’, increasing the kilometres travelled with each unit of energy.
“Electric vehicles are already 3 or 4 times more efficient than petrol and diesel cars at moving people and goods. And by 2050, the electricity they need to travel a kilometre could halve. Rapid electrification, paired with smarter logistics and vehicle design, can cut road-transport energy demand by 70% while supporting growing mobility. That is a huge opportunity for energy security and economic resilience, without impacting our freedom to travel.” said Adair Turner, Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission.
Policymakers around the world are seeking effective ways to cut road-transport emissions. The European Commission could announce new EV requirements for corporate fleets, among wider discussions about possible adjustments to the region’s 2035 phase-out of internal combustion engine vehicle sales. The ETC analysis makes clear that slower electrification means higher energy demand and continued dependence on imported fossil fuels.
“Europe’s transition to electric road transport is fundamentally an energy, resource and economic security strategy as much as a climate one. This report shows that electrifying vehicles will drive energy efficiency and productivity. This means that strong EU EV and fleet targets can dramatically reduce oil dependence while lowering long-term costs for businesses, as many companies we work with have already demonstrated. Weakening the 2035 phase-out would only lock in inefficiency and higher energy risks for Europe.” said Ursula Woodburn, Director, Corporate Leaders Group Europe.
The report also says:
Electrification drives the majority of the energy savings
- EVs are 3–4x more efficient than ICEs as they convert 75–90% of input energy into motion, compared with 20–30% for ICEs, which lose most of their energy as heat.
- However, buyer trends towards heavier cars (such as SUVs) push energy demand up, particularly for ICEs, which, unlike EVs, do not recover energy through regenerative braking. Policies to limit the sale of new ICEs weighing over 1.8 tonnes could reduce total cumulative emissions by 1.6 GtCO2 (equivalent to average yearly emissions of ~350 million cars).
- Hybrid ICE vehicles and plug-in hybrids offer modest efficiency gains over ICEs, but with higher running costs, weaker long-term energy savings, and hybrids are unlikely to match the efficiency or economics of battery-electric vehicles.
- At the primary energy level, shifting to EVs reduces required energy inputs even in power systems dominated by coal and gas generation, but power decarbonisation is essential to ensure that efficiency gains at the end-use level are not partially offset by heat losses in generation. This will enable total primary inputs to road transport to fall by 75%.
Truck electrification outperforms alternative fuel options
- Battery-electric trucks use 70% less energy than diesel trucks, and 65% less energy than hydrogen fuel-cell trucks (FCEVs) to move the wheels, on average,[1] making battery-electric trucks the most energy-efficient and scalable freight solution.
- Hydrogen fuel-cell trucks may play a limited role in niche long-distance or high-payload applications, but their lower overall efficiency won’t match the energy savings of direct electrification.
- Battery electric truck sales are already soaring in China, with 22% market share in H1 2025, up from 9% in H1 2022, forecast to reach at least 50% of the market by 2028.
EV efficiency will continue to rise, but faster stock turnover is essential
- EVs are already cheaper upfront than ICEs in China, and similar trends are emerging in other major markets.
- Today’s passenger EVs are only the beginning. By 2050, new EVs could reduce electricity use per kilometre by up to 50% with lighter materials, better aerodynamics, higher-density batteries, in-wheel motors and smart tyres.
- Cutting passenger EV consumption from 0.2 kWh/km to 0.1 kWh/km could avoid 3,200 TWh of electricity demand in 2050.
- However, the slow turnover of vehicle stock keeps older, less efficient cars on the road for 10–15 years or more. Policies which increase stock turnover can therefore accelerate the pace of total fleet energy efficiency improvement.
Most efficiency gains are achieved by engineering, not lifestyle shifts
- Only 6% of the productivity potential requires replacing car trips with public transport, walking or cycling, and replacing truck movements with consolidated delivery systems in urban areas.
- Speed management and efficient driving styles can also contribute a modest amount. Reducing motorway speeds from 130 km/h to 110 km/h can cut ICE fuel consumption by 17% and EV electricity use by up to 24%, while improving safety, and in some circumstances, reducing congestion effects.
- More consistent “eco-driving”, e.g., smoother acceleration and braking, less idling, smarter use of heating and air conditioning, can deliver some additional savings.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) can optimise commercial operations, but worsen passenger traffic
- Driverless commercial AVs can optimise vehicle utilisation, improve logistics of routing and fleet deployment, operate during off-peak hours, weigh less by removing the human-centric cabin, and reduce idling.
- In contrast, passenger AVs (e.g., robotaxis) may increase driving demand because of convenience and consumer preference over alternative options (e.g., walking, cycling, public transport), reducing much of the potential energy benefits.
Governments, industry and corporates, municipalities and consumers can together unlock the energy productivity potential of road transport. Priority actions include:
- Accelerate shift to EVs by setting phase-out dates for ICE sales, supporting fleet-renewal incentives and enabling bulk procurement or helping EVs bridge the cost gap for commercial fleets.
- Scale charging infrastructure and plan power systems for transport electrification, including rapid-charging freight corridors, streamlined grid connections and expanded public charging for businesses and households.
- Strengthen vehicle efficiency and design standards: tighten standards and increase buyer awareness of fuel efficiency, weight and aerodynamics for cars and trucks.
- For commercial vehicles in particular, improve logistics and operations with digital freight platforms and eventually autonomous vehicles.
The Road Ahead: Electrification, Design and Mobility Choices for Efficient Transport was developed in collaboration with ETC members from across industry, financial institutions, and civil society. This report constitutes a collective view; however, it should not be taken as members agreeing with every finding or recommendation. ETC members have not been asked to formally endorse this report.
Download the insights briefing: https://www.energy-transitions.org/publications/the-road-ahead/
For further information, visit: https://www.energy-transitions.org
[1] The ICCT (2023), A total cost of ownership comparison of truck decarbonization pathways in Europe.
