Still Vital, Still Possible: How Governments and Businesses Can Work Together to Limit Global Warming

Keeping global warming well below 2°C, and ideally to 1.5°C, is still vital and still possible.

In this briefing, the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) sets out five sets of actions that would cut projected warming in 2100 from 2.6°C to around 1.8°C:

1. Turbocharging clean electrification. Electricity rises from around 20% to over 50% of final energy demand, often at very low or negative cost.
2. Decarbonising the hard-to-electrify sectors. Steel, cement, chemicals, aviation and shipping need carbon pricing or equivalent regulation, but the cost to consumers is small.
3. Phasing down existing coal generation. Coal falls from a third of global power generation to under 5% by 2050. Together with clean electrification, this would cut warming to around 2.3°C.
4. Cutting methane emissions. Leaks from oil, gas and coal fall, alongside lower emissions from farming and waste.
5. Ending deforestation. Halting forest loss by 2035 removes around 4 Gt of CO₂ emissions a year.

Returning to 1.5°C would require scaling up carbon removals and agreeing who pays for them.

Published ahead of COP31, the briefing calls for accelerated progress on all five, with the strongest focus on turbocharging clean electrification and decarbonising heavy industry and long-distance transport.